Apart from one or two exceptions I've found it very hard to pick teams at odds above Evens so far this season. However, this weekend the fixtures have fallen very nicely and I'll be doing not one, but FIVE single bets for 'The Double-Up':
BURNLEY (home) @ 5/4 (Paddy Power) to beat Birmingham City
WOLVES (home) @ 23/20 (Paddy Power) to beat Portsmouth
WEST HAM (home) @ 5/4 (Bet 365) to beat Fulham
CHELSEA (home) @ 6/5 (Bet 365) to beat Liverpool
BARNSLEY (home) @ 7/5 (William Hill) to beat Ipswich
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Cheeky Punt (30/09/09)
Ok, I've gone all guns bazing in 'The DUB' so I may as well follow suit for the 'Cheeky Punt'. Five players to score in 90 minutes (all bets are singles):
MATT TAYLOR (Bolton) @ 7/2 (Paddy Power) to score in 90 mins against Spurs
RYAN GIGGS (Man United) @ 3/1 (Paddy Power) to score in 90 mins against Sunderland
FRANK LAMPARD (Chelsea) @ 3/1 (Paddy Power) to score in 90 mins against Liverpool
KEVIN DOYLE (Wolves) @ 23/10 (Paddy Power) to score in 90 mins against Portsmouth
DAVID NUGENT (Burnley) @ 2/1 (Paddy Power) to score in 90 mins against Birmingham
MATT TAYLOR (Bolton) @ 7/2 (Paddy Power) to score in 90 mins against Spurs
RYAN GIGGS (Man United) @ 3/1 (Paddy Power) to score in 90 mins against Sunderland
FRANK LAMPARD (Chelsea) @ 3/1 (Paddy Power) to score in 90 mins against Liverpool
KEVIN DOYLE (Wolves) @ 23/10 (Paddy Power) to score in 90 mins against Portsmouth
DAVID NUGENT (Burnley) @ 2/1 (Paddy Power) to score in 90 mins against Birmingham
Saturday, September 26, 2009
WEEK SEVEN REVIEW - THANK YOU SAMP!!
Spurs 5-0 Burnley
West Brom 0-1 Crystal Palace
Sampdoria 1-0 Inter Milan
In 'The Double-Up' Spurs did the business putting Burnley to the sword with a five goal demolition. However, Crystal Palace ruined the bet as they grabbed a shock 1-0 win away to West Brom.
Cursing my luck I didn't hold out much hope of Sampdoria pulling off the upset I needed against Inter for the 'Cheeky Punt'. Thankfully Giampaolo Pazzini had other ideas scoring a late winner to secure a famous victory for Samp. The odds of 11/4 made this my longest odds winner so far this season and more importantly put me in profit for the weekend and the 'Cheeky Punt' back in profit for the season.
I'm hoping this result will signal a change in fortunes from here on in. Onwards and Upwards!
West Brom 0-1 Crystal Palace
Sampdoria 1-0 Inter Milan
In 'The Double-Up' Spurs did the business putting Burnley to the sword with a five goal demolition. However, Crystal Palace ruined the bet as they grabbed a shock 1-0 win away to West Brom.
Cursing my luck I didn't hold out much hope of Sampdoria pulling off the upset I needed against Inter for the 'Cheeky Punt'. Thankfully Giampaolo Pazzini had other ideas scoring a late winner to secure a famous victory for Samp. The odds of 11/4 made this my longest odds winner so far this season and more importantly put me in profit for the weekend and the 'Cheeky Punt' back in profit for the season.
I'm hoping this result will signal a change in fortunes from here on in. Onwards and Upwards!
Thursday, September 24, 2009
THE DOUBLE-UP (24/09/09)
SPURS & WEST BROM DOUBLE @ 11/10
SPURS (home) @ 4/11 (Paddy Power) to beat Burnley
WEST BROM (home) @ 8/15 (Paddy Power) to beat Crystal Palace
SPURS (home) @ 4/11 (Paddy Power) to beat Burnley
WEST BROM (home) @ 8/15 (Paddy Power) to beat Crystal Palace
SLOW BURNER (24/09/09)
WEST BROM (Championship) and LEEDS (League One) @ 5/1 (Paddy Power) to win their respective leagues - Individual Odds : 2/1 and Evens respectively
WEEK SIX REVIEW - MEH....
Barnet 2-2 Bradford
Hereford 2-0 Accrington
Another shocking weekend. It's just not happening at the moment. Results seem to be all over the shop. Over the next few weeks I'm just going to post up tips because I haven't the time or motivation for the previews at the moment. Hopefully things will pick up over the next few weeks and results will get back on track!
Hereford 2-0 Accrington
Another shocking weekend. It's just not happening at the moment. Results seem to be all over the shop. Over the next few weeks I'm just going to post up tips because I haven't the time or motivation for the previews at the moment. Hopefully things will pick up over the next few weeks and results will get back on track!
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Slow Burner (16/09/09)
AJAX (Group A), HAMBURG (Group C), PSV EINDHOVEN (Group K), WERDER BREMEN (Group L) @ 7/1 (Paddy Power) to win their respective Europa League Groups - Individual Odds : 4/6, 4/6, 4/7, 5/6 respectively
WEEK FIVE REVIEW - JOKE OF A WEEKEND
I'm abroad this week with little internet access so I'll keep this short:
Hamilton 2-0 Hibernian
Spurs 1-3 Man United
Even though the Hamilton game was a shock result given their recent form, they deserved it on the day. It was hard to know how the Spurs game would go and although it looked promising when they took a first minute lead through Defoe, United ran out 3-1 winners.
Due to the lack of internet access I'll just have tips this week, no previews.
Hamilton 2-0 Hibernian
Spurs 1-3 Man United
Even though the Hamilton game was a shock result given their recent form, they deserved it on the day. It was hard to know how the Spurs game would go and although it looked promising when they took a first minute lead through Defoe, United ran out 3-1 winners.
Due to the lack of internet access I'll just have tips this week, no previews.
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
The Double-Up (09/09/09)
HIBERNIAN (away) @ 11/10 (Paddy Power & Boylesports) to beat Hamilton
John Hughes did a sterling job at Falkirk guiding them to SPL promotion and last year he managed to avoid relegation on a tight budget and lead them to the Scottish Cup Final. When Hibernian needed a new manager during the summer it was no surprise that they made former player Hughes their number one target. It was a tough decision for Hughes as Falkirk had given him his start in management but he accepted the offer to move to Easter Road. Hibs have had a good start to the season under Hughes. Two league wins from two were followed up by victory in the League Cup. They lost 1-0 to Celtic in their last outing but Hibs’ season won’t be judged on games against the Old Firm, anything from those games will be a bonus.
Hamilton were forced to sell highly-rated youngsters James McCarthy and Brian Easton over the summer and things have not gone well since. They’ve had a nightmare start to the season losing all three games (all by a margin of three goals). Their misery was compounded when they were knocked out of the League Cup by lower league Ross County.
Hibs played Hamilton three times in the league last season (once home, twice away) and won all three fixtures without conceding a goal. I expect that run to continue with a Hibs win on Sunday at 11/10.
John Hughes did a sterling job at Falkirk guiding them to SPL promotion and last year he managed to avoid relegation on a tight budget and lead them to the Scottish Cup Final. When Hibernian needed a new manager during the summer it was no surprise that they made former player Hughes their number one target. It was a tough decision for Hughes as Falkirk had given him his start in management but he accepted the offer to move to Easter Road. Hibs have had a good start to the season under Hughes. Two league wins from two were followed up by victory in the League Cup. They lost 1-0 to Celtic in their last outing but Hibs’ season won’t be judged on games against the Old Firm, anything from those games will be a bonus.
Hamilton were forced to sell highly-rated youngsters James McCarthy and Brian Easton over the summer and things have not gone well since. They’ve had a nightmare start to the season losing all three games (all by a margin of three goals). Their misery was compounded when they were knocked out of the League Cup by lower league Ross County.
Hibs played Hamilton three times in the league last season (once home, twice away) and won all three fixtures without conceding a goal. I expect that run to continue with a Hibs win on Sunday at 11/10.
Cheeky Punt (09/09/09)
TOTTENHAM (home) @ 11/5 (Paddy Power) to beat Man United
White Hart Lane was jokingly referred to as ‘Three Point Lane’ by fans of some clubs over the past decade, none more so than Man United (they won there six seasons in a row from 2001-07). However, that tide looks to have changed....
Key to Tottenham’s revival has been the appointment of Harry Redknapp as manager. Their record against the 'Big Four' has been impressive since his arrival last October. They were unbeaten at home against all four last season (beating Liverpool and Chelsea) and kicked off this season with a 2-1 win over Liverpool.
Man United don’t seem to be firing on all cylinders yet following the summer losses of Cristiano Ronaldo and Carlos Tevez. They opened the season with an unconvincing 1-0 home win over Birmingham which was followed by defeat to Burnley. United were very fortunate to beat Arsenal last Saturday, having gone a goal down they were rescued by a controversial penalty and an Arsenal own goal.
Spurs are unbeaten at White Hart Lane since November 2008 and are on a run of eight home wins a row. Man United have failed to win this fixture for the last two seasons, I expect more of the same this year and hopefully a Spurs win at 11/5.
White Hart Lane was jokingly referred to as ‘Three Point Lane’ by fans of some clubs over the past decade, none more so than Man United (they won there six seasons in a row from 2001-07). However, that tide looks to have changed....
Key to Tottenham’s revival has been the appointment of Harry Redknapp as manager. Their record against the 'Big Four' has been impressive since his arrival last October. They were unbeaten at home against all four last season (beating Liverpool and Chelsea) and kicked off this season with a 2-1 win over Liverpool.
Man United don’t seem to be firing on all cylinders yet following the summer losses of Cristiano Ronaldo and Carlos Tevez. They opened the season with an unconvincing 1-0 home win over Birmingham which was followed by defeat to Burnley. United were very fortunate to beat Arsenal last Saturday, having gone a goal down they were rescued by a controversial penalty and an Arsenal own goal.
Spurs are unbeaten at White Hart Lane since November 2008 and are on a run of eight home wins a row. Man United have failed to win this fixture for the last two seasons, I expect more of the same this year and hopefully a Spurs win at 11/5.
Slow Burner (09/09/09)
BAYERN MUNICH (Group A), MAN UNITED (Group B), REAL MADRID (Group C), BARCELONA (Group F) @ 5/1 (Boylesports) to win their respective Champions League Groups - Individual Odds : 11/10, 1/4, 1/2, 1/2 respectively
GROUP A:
Bayern Munich
Juventus
Bordeaux
Maccabi Haifa
Whilst Bordeaux and Maccabi Haifa may be in the running for qualification to the knockout stages I don’t see them winning the group – that battle will be between Bayern Munich and Juventus.
Bayern have added Arjen Robben and managed to hold on to Franck Ribery, together with Luca Toni they will be a lethal attacking force. Juventus have improved over the last couple of seasons as they continue the recovery from their 2006 relegation but I expect Bayern to pip them to top spot @ 11/10.
GROUP B
Man United
Wolfsburg
CSKA Moscow
Besiktas
Man United (1/4) should win this group quite comfortably. The other teams will all take points off each other so I don’t see one principle challenger emerging.
GROUP C
Real Madrid
AC Milan
Marseille
FC Zurich
Marseille should be a level above FC Zurich, but I don’t see them in the shake up for top spot -Real and Milan will duke it out for group supremacy. The Real revolution has been well documented with the likes of Ronaldo, Kaka and Benzema all making their way to the Bernabeu this summer. AC Milan are a team in transition under new manager Leonardo, although they will qualify I expect Madrid (1/2) to be too much for them.
GROUP F
Barcelona
Inter Milan
Dynamo Kiev
Rubin Kazan
Dynamo Kiev and Rubin Kazan will battle it out for the third place Europa League consolation prize. The group winner will be whoever does best in the two Barcelona-Inter Milan games and I predict that will be Barcelona @ 1/2.
GROUP A:
Bayern Munich
Juventus
Bordeaux
Maccabi Haifa
Whilst Bordeaux and Maccabi Haifa may be in the running for qualification to the knockout stages I don’t see them winning the group – that battle will be between Bayern Munich and Juventus.
Bayern have added Arjen Robben and managed to hold on to Franck Ribery, together with Luca Toni they will be a lethal attacking force. Juventus have improved over the last couple of seasons as they continue the recovery from their 2006 relegation but I expect Bayern to pip them to top spot @ 11/10.
GROUP B
Man United
Wolfsburg
CSKA Moscow
Besiktas
Man United (1/4) should win this group quite comfortably. The other teams will all take points off each other so I don’t see one principle challenger emerging.
GROUP C
Real Madrid
AC Milan
Marseille
FC Zurich
Marseille should be a level above FC Zurich, but I don’t see them in the shake up for top spot -Real and Milan will duke it out for group supremacy. The Real revolution has been well documented with the likes of Ronaldo, Kaka and Benzema all making their way to the Bernabeu this summer. AC Milan are a team in transition under new manager Leonardo, although they will qualify I expect Madrid (1/2) to be too much for them.
GROUP F
Barcelona
Inter Milan
Dynamo Kiev
Rubin Kazan
Dynamo Kiev and Rubin Kazan will battle it out for the third place Europa League consolation prize. The group winner will be whoever does best in the two Barcelona-Inter Milan games and I predict that will be Barcelona @ 1/2.
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
WEEK FOUR REVIEW - SO SO SICK
Sick is how I felt on Saturday night and not much has changed in the past three days. Saturday got off to a great start when Leeds put away Stockport 2-0 at home to complete the first half of ‘the DUB’. Poland beating Northern Ireland on home soil looked like a formality but Nigel Worthington’s men had other ideas. Kyle Lafferty slotted home from a lovely through ball just before half-time but I was still confident of a second half Polish comeback. I waited and waited before the Poles eventually equalised with ten minutes to go, but it was too late and the game ended in a draw – the DUB in ruins!
The ‘Cheeky Punt’ game by all accounts went pretty much as I had predicted. Portugal HAD to win and came out all guns blazing but Denmark have a sturdy defence (as mentioned last week – five clean sheets from six) and they managed to shut the Portuguese out. The Danes then went ahead on 43 minutes through a Nicklas Bendtner wonder-strike. The Portugal drought continued in the second half and Denmark looked to have done the double over them. However, four minutes from time substitute Liedson (a 31 year old Brazilian who has just gained Portuguese citizenship) salvaged a point for Portugal and the bet was in tatters.
The one shining light from the weekend was that my ‘Slow Burner’ bets on the qualifying group winners (Denmark, Serbia and Slovakia) all look in good shape.
However, last weekend has left a real sour taste for international football and I’ll be giving it a miss in future where possible. Later this week I’ll be looking at the Champions League, Premier League and SPL for the ‘Slow Burner’, ‘Cheeky Punt’ and ‘Double-Up’ respectively.
The ‘Cheeky Punt’ game by all accounts went pretty much as I had predicted. Portugal HAD to win and came out all guns blazing but Denmark have a sturdy defence (as mentioned last week – five clean sheets from six) and they managed to shut the Portuguese out. The Danes then went ahead on 43 minutes through a Nicklas Bendtner wonder-strike. The Portugal drought continued in the second half and Denmark looked to have done the double over them. However, four minutes from time substitute Liedson (a 31 year old Brazilian who has just gained Portuguese citizenship) salvaged a point for Portugal and the bet was in tatters.
The one shining light from the weekend was that my ‘Slow Burner’ bets on the qualifying group winners (Denmark, Serbia and Slovakia) all look in good shape.
However, last weekend has left a real sour taste for international football and I’ll be giving it a miss in future where possible. Later this week I’ll be looking at the Champions League, Premier League and SPL for the ‘Slow Burner’, ‘Cheeky Punt’ and ‘Double-Up’ respectively.
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
The Double-Up (02/09/09)
LEEDS & POLAND DOUBLE @ EVENS
LEEDS (home) @ 1/3 (Paddy Power) to beat Stockport
POLAND (home) @ 1/2 (Paddy Power) to beat Northern Ireland
LEEDS UNITED VS STOCKPORT COUNTY
Gary Ablett’s Stockport have had a pretty unremarkable start to the season winning only one of their five league games so far. That win came two weeks ago away to bottom of the table Brighton. They’ve failed to win any of their three home games losing to Bristol Rovers, Carlisle and last Saturday they were on the verge of defeat to winless Southampton but scored a 95th minute penalty to salvage a draw. The Hatters won against lower league opposition in the LDV Vans Trophy midweek but they face sterner stuff on Saturday.
Simon Grayson left his job as Blackpool manager in December 2008 to take over at Leeds United. Even though it meant dropping down a division, the call of the club he began his playing career with was just too tempting a challenge. Grayson took Leeds to the play-offs in his first season but was unable to guide the former European giants to promotion as they were defeated by Millwall in the semi-finals.
Leeds were quiet in the transfer market during the summer but some might say their biggest signing was hanging on to goal machine Jermaine Beckford. He’s been key to Leeds’ success so far this season bagging five goals from five league games. However, Leeds (who have seven wins from seven league and cup games) are more than a one man team and this week they added to that talent with new signings Leigh Bromby (Sheffield United) and South African striker David Somme – both will be pushing for a starting place against Stockport.
Leeds beat Stockport home and away last season and I expect more of the same this Saturday.
POLAND VS NORTHERN IRELAND
I’ll make my analysis of this game brief. Poland have a great home record, most recently winning 10-0 against San Marino (only San Marino you say, but they put more goals past them than any other team in the group including Northern Ireland who only managed four in Belfast).
Northern Ireland can be great at home, they’ve beaten the likes of England, Spain, Sweden, even Saturday’s opponents Poland at Windsor Park but away from home they are a completely different team. I’ve gone back through ten years of qualifiers and excluding the bottom seeds from their group (the Maltas. the Liechtensteins, etc) they haven’t won a single away game. That’s over twenty games - enough said about this one I think!
LEEDS (home) @ 1/3 (Paddy Power) to beat Stockport
POLAND (home) @ 1/2 (Paddy Power) to beat Northern Ireland
LEEDS UNITED VS STOCKPORT COUNTY
Gary Ablett’s Stockport have had a pretty unremarkable start to the season winning only one of their five league games so far. That win came two weeks ago away to bottom of the table Brighton. They’ve failed to win any of their three home games losing to Bristol Rovers, Carlisle and last Saturday they were on the verge of defeat to winless Southampton but scored a 95th minute penalty to salvage a draw. The Hatters won against lower league opposition in the LDV Vans Trophy midweek but they face sterner stuff on Saturday.
Simon Grayson left his job as Blackpool manager in December 2008 to take over at Leeds United. Even though it meant dropping down a division, the call of the club he began his playing career with was just too tempting a challenge. Grayson took Leeds to the play-offs in his first season but was unable to guide the former European giants to promotion as they were defeated by Millwall in the semi-finals.
Leeds were quiet in the transfer market during the summer but some might say their biggest signing was hanging on to goal machine Jermaine Beckford. He’s been key to Leeds’ success so far this season bagging five goals from five league games. However, Leeds (who have seven wins from seven league and cup games) are more than a one man team and this week they added to that talent with new signings Leigh Bromby (Sheffield United) and South African striker David Somme – both will be pushing for a starting place against Stockport.
Leeds beat Stockport home and away last season and I expect more of the same this Saturday.
POLAND VS NORTHERN IRELAND
I’ll make my analysis of this game brief. Poland have a great home record, most recently winning 10-0 against San Marino (only San Marino you say, but they put more goals past them than any other team in the group including Northern Ireland who only managed four in Belfast).
Northern Ireland can be great at home, they’ve beaten the likes of England, Spain, Sweden, even Saturday’s opponents Poland at Windsor Park but away from home they are a completely different team. I’ve gone back through ten years of qualifiers and excluding the bottom seeds from their group (the Maltas. the Liechtensteins, etc) they haven’t won a single away game. That’s over twenty games - enough said about this one I think!
Cheeky Punt (02/09/09)
DENMARK (home) @ 23/10 (Boylesports) to beat Portugal
I have to be honest – looking through the international football coupons last night I saw Denmark at 23/20 and thought they were a decent shout for ‘The DUB’ (Double-Up Bet) this week. When I woke up this morning and realised that I had been half asleep the previous night and the odds were in fact 23/10, I knew I had this week’s ‘Cheeky Punt’ sorted!
International football can be a tough one to predict. When you’re watching club teams week in week out you get a feel for their form and how things might go over the next few games. However, with internationals some teams don’t play for 4-5 months at a time and you’re left with the cold hard stats to be your form guide. Let me run you through the contrasting stories of these two teams so far in Group One:
Portugal began their campaign with a 4-0 away drubbing of Malta. Yet their success was short-lived as they went down 3-2 at home to Denmark in the next game. Three scoreless draws followed (including a stalemate at home to Albania of all teams). Portugal restored some pride on their last outing in Albania with a narrow 2-1 win but the damage has already been done in terms of qualification and the Portuguese have it all to do.
Denmark’s story has been quite the opposite. They got off to a reasonable start with a 0-0 draw in Hungary but haven’t looked back since their amazing 3-2 victory in Lisbon. While Portugal were firing blanks the Danes were busy recording three straight 3-0 wins and continued their fine away form with a 1-0 win in Sweden during the summer.
One of the many impressive aspects of Denmark’s campaign so far has been their defence - five clean sheets from their six qualifiers isn’t bad going. You also need firepower and the Danes have that – scoring three goals in four of their last five outings. In contrast, Portugal haven't even scored in three out of their last four qualifiers.
It puzzles me how the bookies can have Portugal favourites for this one and 11/10 for an away team is pretty strong. Portugal need to win this one if they are going to qualify but that doesn’t mean they will. If all teams won when they needed to Newcastle would have won the Premier League last year instead of getting relegated!
Denmark have Hungary hot on their heels in terms of qualification and considering they've won away to Portugal (and Sweden) I can't see Denmark holding out for a draw in this one. Portugal need the win so they will have to attack, which will give the Danes opportunities to hit them on the break. I think Denmark have a great chance of victory at 23/10.
I have to be honest – looking through the international football coupons last night I saw Denmark at 23/20 and thought they were a decent shout for ‘The DUB’ (Double-Up Bet) this week. When I woke up this morning and realised that I had been half asleep the previous night and the odds were in fact 23/10, I knew I had this week’s ‘Cheeky Punt’ sorted!
International football can be a tough one to predict. When you’re watching club teams week in week out you get a feel for their form and how things might go over the next few games. However, with internationals some teams don’t play for 4-5 months at a time and you’re left with the cold hard stats to be your form guide. Let me run you through the contrasting stories of these two teams so far in Group One:
Portugal began their campaign with a 4-0 away drubbing of Malta. Yet their success was short-lived as they went down 3-2 at home to Denmark in the next game. Three scoreless draws followed (including a stalemate at home to Albania of all teams). Portugal restored some pride on their last outing in Albania with a narrow 2-1 win but the damage has already been done in terms of qualification and the Portuguese have it all to do.
Denmark’s story has been quite the opposite. They got off to a reasonable start with a 0-0 draw in Hungary but haven’t looked back since their amazing 3-2 victory in Lisbon. While Portugal were firing blanks the Danes were busy recording three straight 3-0 wins and continued their fine away form with a 1-0 win in Sweden during the summer.
One of the many impressive aspects of Denmark’s campaign so far has been their defence - five clean sheets from their six qualifiers isn’t bad going. You also need firepower and the Danes have that – scoring three goals in four of their last five outings. In contrast, Portugal haven't even scored in three out of their last four qualifiers.
It puzzles me how the bookies can have Portugal favourites for this one and 11/10 for an away team is pretty strong. Portugal need to win this one if they are going to qualify but that doesn’t mean they will. If all teams won when they needed to Newcastle would have won the Premier League last year instead of getting relegated!
Denmark have Hungary hot on their heels in terms of qualification and considering they've won away to Portugal (and Sweden) I can't see Denmark holding out for a draw in this one. Portugal need the win so they will have to attack, which will give the Danes opportunities to hit them on the break. I think Denmark have a great chance of victory at 23/10.
Slow Burner (02/09/09)
DENMARK (Group 1), SLOVAKIA (Group 3), SERBIA (Group 7) @ 17/4 (Boylesports) to win their respective World Cup Qualifying Groups - Individual Odds : 1/3, Evens, Evens respectively
GROUP ONE:
Denmark 16pts
Hungary 13pts
Portugal 9pts
Sweden 9pts
All teams have played six games with four remaining. Sweden have no chance as they’ll need to win their last four games (three of which are away -including trips to Denmark and Hungary) and hope just about every other result goes their way.
Portugal have the same problem. Whilst they have a better chance of winning their final games (although having failed to score in three of their last four, I don’t see it happening) they’ll need a massive collapse from Denmark who only need two wins to guarantee finishing ahead of Portugal and Sweden. It’s very unlikely that the Danes will fail to win two games from Portugal (h), Albania (a), Sweden (h), Hungary (h).
A much improved Hungary are the only team that can realistically challenge Denmark for top spot. They’re currently three points behind but have a very tough run-in with games against all the remaining top four (Portugal twice) including trips to Denmark and Portugal.
I fully expect Denmark to win this group with a few points to spare. The Danes are unbeaten so far with five wins from six so it would take a catastrophic collapse for them not to win Group A at 1/3.
GROUP THREE:
Slovakia P6 15pts
Northern Ireland P7 13pts
Slovenia P7 11pts
Poland P6 10pts
Czech Republic P6 8pts
When this group was drawn in December 2007 Czech Republic were installed as the bookies favourites. Fast forward 18 months and only San Marino are keeping them off the bottom of it. The Euro 96 finalists are not the dominant force they once were. Gone are legends such as Pavel Nedved, Jan Koller and Karel Poborsky with Tomas Rosicky a long-term injury absence. They’ve struggled away in this group with their one win out of four coming against minnows San Marino. Following that victory they lost at home to Slovakia in the next round of qualifiers. The Czechs need to make up a 7 point gap on Slovakia (and leapfrog the other three) and that’s never going to happen with four games to go.
Poland need to better Slovakia’s total from the final four games by six points. The Poles have already lost in Northern Ireland and Slovakia, so it’s hard to see them winning their remaining away games in Slovenia and the Czech Republic, but they’ll be in the running for second place.
Slovenia are a point better off than the Poles but have played a game more. It’s going to be a tough ask for them to better Slovakia’s total by five points in three games. I expect Slovakia to end their challenge when Slovenia go there in their penultimate group game.
Northern Ireland have done great to even be in the running at this stage. They sit two points behind Slovakia having played a game more. However, Nigel Worthington’s men are poor travellers and apart from a token win in San Marino have lost all their away games. Trips to Poland and the Czech Republic in their final three games will surely prove too much for Northern Ireland, but they will be in the running for second spot.
Looking at the fixtures, Slovakia should only have to win one of their two remaining home games (Czech Republic and Slovenia) and having won all three home games so far I fully expect them to win Group 3 at odds of Evens.
GROUP SEVEN:
Serbia P7 18pts
France P6 13pts
There are only two teams who can really win this group, France and Serbia. The French have four games remaining – three of which are at home (Romania, Faroe Islands and Austria). Anything but maximum points in those games will see Serbia win the group.
However, all things being equal the group will be decided by France’s match away to Serbia next Wednesday. The French began their campaign with a disastrous 3-1 away loss to Austria and also failed to beat Romania away in a match that ended 2-2. They broke their away duck with a one-goal win in Lithuania but a lacklustre 1-0 win away to the Faroe Islands has again highlighted their poor form on the road. Serbia, on the other hand have a great home record winning all three games thus far without conceding a single goal.
It’s win or bust (in terms of topping the group) for France in this game, but I think Serbia will take something and subsequently win group 7 at odds of Evens
GROUP ONE:
Denmark 16pts
Hungary 13pts
Portugal 9pts
Sweden 9pts
All teams have played six games with four remaining. Sweden have no chance as they’ll need to win their last four games (three of which are away -including trips to Denmark and Hungary) and hope just about every other result goes their way.
Portugal have the same problem. Whilst they have a better chance of winning their final games (although having failed to score in three of their last four, I don’t see it happening) they’ll need a massive collapse from Denmark who only need two wins to guarantee finishing ahead of Portugal and Sweden. It’s very unlikely that the Danes will fail to win two games from Portugal (h), Albania (a), Sweden (h), Hungary (h).
A much improved Hungary are the only team that can realistically challenge Denmark for top spot. They’re currently three points behind but have a very tough run-in with games against all the remaining top four (Portugal twice) including trips to Denmark and Portugal.
I fully expect Denmark to win this group with a few points to spare. The Danes are unbeaten so far with five wins from six so it would take a catastrophic collapse for them not to win Group A at 1/3.
GROUP THREE:
Slovakia P6 15pts
Northern Ireland P7 13pts
Slovenia P7 11pts
Poland P6 10pts
Czech Republic P6 8pts
When this group was drawn in December 2007 Czech Republic were installed as the bookies favourites. Fast forward 18 months and only San Marino are keeping them off the bottom of it. The Euro 96 finalists are not the dominant force they once were. Gone are legends such as Pavel Nedved, Jan Koller and Karel Poborsky with Tomas Rosicky a long-term injury absence. They’ve struggled away in this group with their one win out of four coming against minnows San Marino. Following that victory they lost at home to Slovakia in the next round of qualifiers. The Czechs need to make up a 7 point gap on Slovakia (and leapfrog the other three) and that’s never going to happen with four games to go.
Poland need to better Slovakia’s total from the final four games by six points. The Poles have already lost in Northern Ireland and Slovakia, so it’s hard to see them winning their remaining away games in Slovenia and the Czech Republic, but they’ll be in the running for second place.
Slovenia are a point better off than the Poles but have played a game more. It’s going to be a tough ask for them to better Slovakia’s total by five points in three games. I expect Slovakia to end their challenge when Slovenia go there in their penultimate group game.
Northern Ireland have done great to even be in the running at this stage. They sit two points behind Slovakia having played a game more. However, Nigel Worthington’s men are poor travellers and apart from a token win in San Marino have lost all their away games. Trips to Poland and the Czech Republic in their final three games will surely prove too much for Northern Ireland, but they will be in the running for second spot.
Looking at the fixtures, Slovakia should only have to win one of their two remaining home games (Czech Republic and Slovenia) and having won all three home games so far I fully expect them to win Group 3 at odds of Evens.
GROUP SEVEN:
Serbia P7 18pts
France P6 13pts
There are only two teams who can really win this group, France and Serbia. The French have four games remaining – three of which are at home (Romania, Faroe Islands and Austria). Anything but maximum points in those games will see Serbia win the group.
However, all things being equal the group will be decided by France’s match away to Serbia next Wednesday. The French began their campaign with a disastrous 3-1 away loss to Austria and also failed to beat Romania away in a match that ended 2-2. They broke their away duck with a one-goal win in Lithuania but a lacklustre 1-0 win away to the Faroe Islands has again highlighted their poor form on the road. Serbia, on the other hand have a great home record winning all three games thus far without conceding a single goal.
It’s win or bust (in terms of topping the group) for France in this game, but I think Serbia will take something and subsequently win group 7 at odds of Evens
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
WEEK THREE REVIEW - BACK IN BUSINESS!
For the second week in a row the first goal from the 3 o'clock kick-offs was scored in the match selected for the Double-Up Bet (DUB). To my delight, this week it was good news as Jermaine Easter hit the back of the net after 33 seconds for MK Dons in their match away to Exeter. Things looked even better when Welsh international Easter doubled the lead five minutes later and the Dons could have been four or five up by half-time. But Exeter improved in the second half and pulled one back on 50 mins resulting in a very nervous finish. However, MK Dons ran out 2-1 winners at 7/5.
The Cheeky Punt wasn't as successful. West Ham (11/5) stretched their unbeaten run against Blackburn to eight games but were unable to grab a winner with the game finishing scoreless. The Hammers were the better team in the first half and things looked promising when Carlton Cole went on a run beating three Blackburn defenders but he was unable to hit the target. Blackburn improved in the second half and West Ham were left holding on for a point.
I'm now going to look at the overall picture for the weekend bets so far this season (there's no point in looking at the long term bets as none have been won/lost yet).
DOUBLE-UP BET (DUB):
CHEEKY PUNT:
(Apologies for the not so sexy table - this blog site doesn't like tables so I had to do a lot of fiddling around)
As you can see from the above tables, both bets are on track so far, with a 2 in 3 win rate for 'The DUB' and a 1 in 3 win rate for the 'Cheeky Punt'.
As there's not much club action this weekend there'll be an international flavour to this week's bets. I intend to take a look at qualifiication and group betting for the 'Slow Burner' bet. See you on Thursday!
The Cheeky Punt wasn't as successful. West Ham (11/5) stretched their unbeaten run against Blackburn to eight games but were unable to grab a winner with the game finishing scoreless. The Hammers were the better team in the first half and things looked promising when Carlton Cole went on a run beating three Blackburn defenders but he was unable to hit the target. Blackburn improved in the second half and West Ham were left holding on for a point.
I'm now going to look at the overall picture for the weekend bets so far this season (there's no point in looking at the long term bets as none have been won/lost yet).
DOUBLE-UP BET (DUB):
| BET | ODDS | STAKE | RETURN | ||||||||||||||||
| NOTTS CO. | EVS | 20 | 40 | ||||||||||||||||
| CHELTENHAM | 11/10 | 20 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| MK DONS | 7/5 | 20 | 48 | ||||||||||||||||
| TOTAL | 60 | 88 |
CHEEKY PUNT:
| BET | ODDS | STAKE | RETURN | ||||||||||||||||
| COVENTRY | 5/2 | 10 | 35 | ||||||||||||||||
| LAMPARD | 9/4 | 10 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| WEST HAM | 11/5 | 10 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| TOTAL | 30 | 35 |
(Apologies for the not so sexy table - this blog site doesn't like tables so I had to do a lot of fiddling around)
As you can see from the above tables, both bets are on track so far, with a 2 in 3 win rate for 'The DUB' and a 1 in 3 win rate for the 'Cheeky Punt'.
As there's not much club action this weekend there'll be an international flavour to this week's bets. I intend to take a look at qualifiication and group betting for the 'Slow Burner' bet. See you on Thursday!
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