Thursday, August 27, 2009
The Double-Up (27/08/09)
MK DONS (away) @ 7/5 (Paddy Power) to beat Exeter City
The fixture computer hasn’t been kind this weekend. Unlike previous weeks, there’s no one team (above odds of Evens anyway) that sticks out for me, but I’m going to pick what I see as the best of the bunch, MK Dons.
The Dons were unlucky not to go up last season under then manager Roberto Di Matteo. However, the Italian has since moved on to pastures new at West Brom and has been replaced in the hot seat by the man that he succeeded, Paul Ince.
Ince won promotion to League One during his first stint as MK Dons manager but the offer of managing in the Premier League was too tempting for ‘The Guvnor’ and he left for Blackburn in the summer of 2008. His short and unsuccessful l spell at Rovers ended after four months and he was unemployed until MK Dons offered him his old job back following the departure of Di Matteo. One year after leaving the job, Ince accepted chairman Peter Winkleman’s offer and immediately targeted promotion to the Championship.
MK Dons had a reasonable start to this season with two scoreless draws but have since gotten into their stride with wins away to Tranmere and a 2-1 victory last week against top of the table Colchester. The Dons have also managed to keep three clean sheets from their first four fixtures.
Their opponents on Saturday, newly-promoted Exeter City, have had a respectable start to the season but haven’t set the world alight. Both their home games thus far have ended in draws and their sole victory came away to Carlisle.
MK Dons won an impressive 14 away games in this division last season and 18 the year before (in League Two). I expect them to continue their great away form on Saturday with a win at odds of 7/5.
The fixture computer hasn’t been kind this weekend. Unlike previous weeks, there’s no one team (above odds of Evens anyway) that sticks out for me, but I’m going to pick what I see as the best of the bunch, MK Dons.
The Dons were unlucky not to go up last season under then manager Roberto Di Matteo. However, the Italian has since moved on to pastures new at West Brom and has been replaced in the hot seat by the man that he succeeded, Paul Ince.
Ince won promotion to League One during his first stint as MK Dons manager but the offer of managing in the Premier League was too tempting for ‘The Guvnor’ and he left for Blackburn in the summer of 2008. His short and unsuccessful l spell at Rovers ended after four months and he was unemployed until MK Dons offered him his old job back following the departure of Di Matteo. One year after leaving the job, Ince accepted chairman Peter Winkleman’s offer and immediately targeted promotion to the Championship.
MK Dons had a reasonable start to this season with two scoreless draws but have since gotten into their stride with wins away to Tranmere and a 2-1 victory last week against top of the table Colchester. The Dons have also managed to keep three clean sheets from their first four fixtures.
Their opponents on Saturday, newly-promoted Exeter City, have had a respectable start to the season but haven’t set the world alight. Both their home games thus far have ended in draws and their sole victory came away to Carlisle.
MK Dons won an impressive 14 away games in this division last season and 18 the year before (in League Two). I expect them to continue their great away form on Saturday with a win at odds of 7/5.
Cheeky Punt (27/08/09)
WEST HAM (away) @ 11/5 (Boylesports &Paddy Power) to beat Blackburn Rovers
Blackburn Rovers had a poor pre-season winning only one of their eight games and they seem to have carried that uninspiring form into the new season with defeats to Sunderland and Man City leaving them pointless. Rovers lost their main striker Roque Santa Cruz to Man City in the summer and boss Sam Allardyce has looked to bolster his options up front by bringing in Nikola Kalinic from Hajduk Split and Chelsea youngster Franco di Santo on loan. Croatian striker Kalinic is highly rated by his national team coach Slaven Bilic but judging by his poor debut performance against Sunderland it’s going to take time for him to settle into the Premier League. 20-year-old di Santo has made infrequent substitute appearances for Chelsea and is seen as a hot prospect for the future, but it’s doubtful whether he’ll be able to make a real impact this season.
Gianfranco Zola did a good job on a tight budget in his first season as West Ham manager finishing in ninth place. They had an impressive away record under Zola last season losing only six of their eighteen games away from Upton Park. Included were points at Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal and Aston Villa. ‘The Hammers’ carried that form into the new season with a 2-0 opening day win at Wolves.
West Ham have a great record against Blackburn in recent years – they are unbeaten in their last seven games against Rovers and have won this Ewood Park fixture twice in the past three seasons. I think West Ham have a great chance of pulling off an away victory at 11/5.
Blackburn Rovers had a poor pre-season winning only one of their eight games and they seem to have carried that uninspiring form into the new season with defeats to Sunderland and Man City leaving them pointless. Rovers lost their main striker Roque Santa Cruz to Man City in the summer and boss Sam Allardyce has looked to bolster his options up front by bringing in Nikola Kalinic from Hajduk Split and Chelsea youngster Franco di Santo on loan. Croatian striker Kalinic is highly rated by his national team coach Slaven Bilic but judging by his poor debut performance against Sunderland it’s going to take time for him to settle into the Premier League. 20-year-old di Santo has made infrequent substitute appearances for Chelsea and is seen as a hot prospect for the future, but it’s doubtful whether he’ll be able to make a real impact this season.
Gianfranco Zola did a good job on a tight budget in his first season as West Ham manager finishing in ninth place. They had an impressive away record under Zola last season losing only six of their eighteen games away from Upton Park. Included were points at Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal and Aston Villa. ‘The Hammers’ carried that form into the new season with a 2-0 opening day win at Wolves.
West Ham have a great record against Blackburn in recent years – they are unbeaten in their last seven games against Rovers and have won this Ewood Park fixture twice in the past three seasons. I think West Ham have a great chance of pulling off an away victory at 11/5.
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Slow Burner (27/08/09)
THIERRY HENRY (Barcelona) @ 16/1 ew (Paddy Power) to be La Liga’s top scorer - Each Way Odds 1/4 places 1,2,3,4
Spain’s Premier Division (known as La Liga) kicks off this weekend so I thought I’d take a look at some of their betting markets. However, there is no value in picking the outright winner as the likely champions (Barcelona or Real Madrid) are priced around Evens. Instead I thought I’d take a look at a betting market with better value...
The award for the top goalscorer in La Liga is known as the Pichichi and over the last five years it has been won with an average of 27 goals. To figure out who will be the top scorer this season we need to look at last year’s contenders and this summer’s new signings.
Last season the Pichichi was won by Diego Forlan with Samuel Eto’o, David Villa, Lionel Messi and Thierry Henry making up the top five scorers (Eto’o has since moved to Serie A so he is ruled out). Real Madrid have brought in Kaka (20/1), Cristiano Ronaldo (11/2) and Karim Benzema (8/1) in the attacking department and Barcelona have brought in Zlatan Ibrahimovic (8/1) up front.
To win the Pichichi you need to be scoring 27 goals or more and I don’t see Real’s new signings doing that in their first season in Spanish football. Apart from needing time to settle into a new league I think with so many superstars there will be a wide distribution of goals, certainly enough for none of the new Madrid players to be hitting 27+ goals in the league.
When I heard that Inter Milan had signed Samuel Eto’o for 45 million euro plus Zlatan Ibrahimovic I thought they had paid over the odds. When I heard that Barcelona paid 45 million plus Samuel Eto’o for Zlatan Ibrahimovic I thought it was April Fool’s Day! ‘Ibra’ is by no means a world class player. I’ll admit he did well last season (scoring 25 league goals) but in the four previous seasons he has averaged a mere 13 goals. He should do ok once he gets settled in Spain but I don’t see him being amongst the contenders for the Pichichi this season.
Valencia are a very unstable club at the moment. They’re in massive financial trouble and despite rumours of a takeover, it is thought that the club’s top stars will have to be sold sooner or later. David Villa (13/2) will score goals week in week out in a top team but who knows if he’ll get the service at Valencia this year and if he’ll even be there until the end of the season?
That leaves Diego Forlan (9/1), Lionel Messi (8/1) and Thierry Henry (16/1) and I think they’ll make up the top three scorers this season. Although Forlan won the Pichichi last season with 32 goals, in the three seasons previous he averaged just 15 goals so I’m not sure if he can hit 30+ goals two seasons in a row. Lionel Messi is improving every year and if he doesn’t win it he will certainly come close, but I’m going for a value bet in the shape of Thierry Henry.
Henry was unstoppable during his time at Arsenal and whilst he failed to live up to expectations during his first season at Barcelona (12 league goals) he looked a much more confident player last season and improved his goal tally to 19. Someone will need to step into the void left by Eto’o (30 goals last season) and I expect Henry to chip in with more goals.
Paddy Power are paying out on the top four scorers if you bet each way and I have no doubt that Thierry Henry at 16/1 will be in that top four and he might just win it!
Spain’s Premier Division (known as La Liga) kicks off this weekend so I thought I’d take a look at some of their betting markets. However, there is no value in picking the outright winner as the likely champions (Barcelona or Real Madrid) are priced around Evens. Instead I thought I’d take a look at a betting market with better value...
The award for the top goalscorer in La Liga is known as the Pichichi and over the last five years it has been won with an average of 27 goals. To figure out who will be the top scorer this season we need to look at last year’s contenders and this summer’s new signings.
Last season the Pichichi was won by Diego Forlan with Samuel Eto’o, David Villa, Lionel Messi and Thierry Henry making up the top five scorers (Eto’o has since moved to Serie A so he is ruled out). Real Madrid have brought in Kaka (20/1), Cristiano Ronaldo (11/2) and Karim Benzema (8/1) in the attacking department and Barcelona have brought in Zlatan Ibrahimovic (8/1) up front.
To win the Pichichi you need to be scoring 27 goals or more and I don’t see Real’s new signings doing that in their first season in Spanish football. Apart from needing time to settle into a new league I think with so many superstars there will be a wide distribution of goals, certainly enough for none of the new Madrid players to be hitting 27+ goals in the league.
When I heard that Inter Milan had signed Samuel Eto’o for 45 million euro plus Zlatan Ibrahimovic I thought they had paid over the odds. When I heard that Barcelona paid 45 million plus Samuel Eto’o for Zlatan Ibrahimovic I thought it was April Fool’s Day! ‘Ibra’ is by no means a world class player. I’ll admit he did well last season (scoring 25 league goals) but in the four previous seasons he has averaged a mere 13 goals. He should do ok once he gets settled in Spain but I don’t see him being amongst the contenders for the Pichichi this season.
Valencia are a very unstable club at the moment. They’re in massive financial trouble and despite rumours of a takeover, it is thought that the club’s top stars will have to be sold sooner or later. David Villa (13/2) will score goals week in week out in a top team but who knows if he’ll get the service at Valencia this year and if he’ll even be there until the end of the season?
That leaves Diego Forlan (9/1), Lionel Messi (8/1) and Thierry Henry (16/1) and I think they’ll make up the top three scorers this season. Although Forlan won the Pichichi last season with 32 goals, in the three seasons previous he averaged just 15 goals so I’m not sure if he can hit 30+ goals two seasons in a row. Lionel Messi is improving every year and if he doesn’t win it he will certainly come close, but I’m going for a value bet in the shape of Thierry Henry.
Henry was unstoppable during his time at Arsenal and whilst he failed to live up to expectations during his first season at Barcelona (12 league goals) he looked a much more confident player last season and improved his goal tally to 19. Someone will need to step into the void left by Eto’o (30 goals last season) and I expect Henry to chip in with more goals.
Paddy Power are paying out on the top four scorers if you bet each way and I have no doubt that Thierry Henry at 16/1 will be in that top four and he might just win it!
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
WEEK TWO REVIEW - BETTER BEST FORGOTTEN!
3.02pm... that’s when the first goal in England was scored on Saturday and out of the 92 league clubs it came from the one team that I least expected (and most feared) ...Bradford City!
When Cheltenham equalised two minutes later I knew it was going to be a rollercoaster afternoon, and I wasn’t wrong - FIVE goals were scored in the first TWENTY minutes! The game was level at half-time with the score 3-3, but the madness continued in the second half as Bradford ran out shock 5-4 winners.
Well what can you say about that? A team that hasn't scored a goal all season goes away to an unbeaten team and scores five! I would have gone for Cheltenham all day in this match. Every possible indicator pointed to a Cheltenham win but you can’t predict shocking defensive performances like that.
Sunday afternoon was as clear cut as it gets - I needed one goal from one man (Frank Lampard), any time any way and it was job done. Lampard’s great scoring record against Fulham was mentioned by Richard Keys in the intro on Sky and then again and again.....and I began to get a niggling feeling about the bet.
For the sixth game in seven (at the Cottage) Chelsea scored two goals. However, Lampard was more of a playmaker and didn’t get many scoring chances. All hopes of a late goal were ended when he was subbed for Deco with ten minutes remaining.
I won’t beat about the bush, it was a disastrous weekend! Cheltenham manager Martin Allen commented after their match: “I wasn’t popping the champagne after beating Lincoln during the week and I won’t be popping the pills tonight”. I think I’ll take a leaf out of ‘Mad Dog’s’ book and just chalk this one off to experience. I’ll be updating the blog on Thursday with tips for the coming weekend and with La Liga returning this week I intend to include a season-long Spanish bet.
When Cheltenham equalised two minutes later I knew it was going to be a rollercoaster afternoon, and I wasn’t wrong - FIVE goals were scored in the first TWENTY minutes! The game was level at half-time with the score 3-3, but the madness continued in the second half as Bradford ran out shock 5-4 winners.
Well what can you say about that? A team that hasn't scored a goal all season goes away to an unbeaten team and scores five! I would have gone for Cheltenham all day in this match. Every possible indicator pointed to a Cheltenham win but you can’t predict shocking defensive performances like that.
Sunday afternoon was as clear cut as it gets - I needed one goal from one man (Frank Lampard), any time any way and it was job done. Lampard’s great scoring record against Fulham was mentioned by Richard Keys in the intro on Sky and then again and again.....and I began to get a niggling feeling about the bet.
For the sixth game in seven (at the Cottage) Chelsea scored two goals. However, Lampard was more of a playmaker and didn’t get many scoring chances. All hopes of a late goal were ended when he was subbed for Deco with ten minutes remaining.
I won’t beat about the bush, it was a disastrous weekend! Cheltenham manager Martin Allen commented after their match: “I wasn’t popping the champagne after beating Lincoln during the week and I won’t be popping the pills tonight”. I think I’ll take a leaf out of ‘Mad Dog’s’ book and just chalk this one off to experience. I’ll be updating the blog on Thursday with tips for the coming weekend and with La Liga returning this week I intend to include a season-long Spanish bet.
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Double Your Money Banker!
CHELTENHAM TOWN (home) @ 11/10 (Paddy Power) to beat Bradford City
August 1999 saw a Paul Jewell led Bradford City begin life amongst English football’s elite for the first time in their history. The Bantams had Premier League trips to the likes of Man United, Liverpool and Arsenal to look forward to and with players such as Benito Carbone, Dean Saunders and Lee Sharpe plying their trade at Valley Parade, Bradford fans must have thought they were in heaven. Fast forward ten years and it’s another member of that Bantams squad in the hot seat -Stuart McCall. However, the circumstances are VERY different. After numerous spells in administration and three relegations the Yorkshire club find themselves in the football league’s bottom tier – Coca-Cola League Two (or hell as those Bradford fans refer to it!).
Cheltenham Town’s story is a little less dramatic. While Bradford were strutting their stuff in the Premier League, the 1998/99 Conference champions were beginning their first ever season of league football in Division Three (League Two as it’s known now). The Robins have since yo-yoed between the third and fourth tiers of English football and last year saw them once again relegated to League Two.
The town has always been more famous for its horse racing festivals but that may all be about to change under their latest manager, Martin “Mad Dog” Allen who’s managerial techniques are a little eccentric (and that’s putting it mildly). In February 2005, he stripped butt-naked and jumped into a freezing cold river in front of his entire Brentford squad on the way to an FA Cup tie at Southampton. Whether this played a part in The Bees grabbing a shock 2-2 draw against the then Premier League side, only they know.
The former West Ham hardman has had a colourful managerial career so far. Successful spells at Barnet, Brentford and MK Dons were marred by a four-game spell in charge of Championship side Leicester City in 2007 which ended after a falling out with chairman Milan Mandaric. A year in the managerial wilderness followed before the opportunity of managing his father’s former club Cheltenham Town came up midway through last season. The Robins were already struggling in League One and due to financial difficulties Allen’s hands were tied when it came to transfer dealings. Town were subsequently relegated to League Two.
However, this summer 'Mad Dog' was given a chance to wheel and deal in the transfer market and the early signs are that his hard work has paid off. After three games, Cheltenham are unbeaten in the league and on Tuesday night they grabbed a 1-0 away win at Rochdale.
In contrast, their opponents on Saturday, Bradford City, have had a disastrous start to the season. The Bantams have yet to even score a goal in their four league and cup games. Their season began with a 5-0 thrashing at Notts County and on Tuesday night they suffered a 2-0 home defeat to Lincoln City.
Strange things can happen in football, but all the signs point to a home victory for Cheltenham Town whom I think are a good price considering the circumstances at 11/10.
August 1999 saw a Paul Jewell led Bradford City begin life amongst English football’s elite for the first time in their history. The Bantams had Premier League trips to the likes of Man United, Liverpool and Arsenal to look forward to and with players such as Benito Carbone, Dean Saunders and Lee Sharpe plying their trade at Valley Parade, Bradford fans must have thought they were in heaven. Fast forward ten years and it’s another member of that Bantams squad in the hot seat -Stuart McCall. However, the circumstances are VERY different. After numerous spells in administration and three relegations the Yorkshire club find themselves in the football league’s bottom tier – Coca-Cola League Two (or hell as those Bradford fans refer to it!).
Cheltenham Town’s story is a little less dramatic. While Bradford were strutting their stuff in the Premier League, the 1998/99 Conference champions were beginning their first ever season of league football in Division Three (League Two as it’s known now). The Robins have since yo-yoed between the third and fourth tiers of English football and last year saw them once again relegated to League Two.
The town has always been more famous for its horse racing festivals but that may all be about to change under their latest manager, Martin “Mad Dog” Allen who’s managerial techniques are a little eccentric (and that’s putting it mildly). In February 2005, he stripped butt-naked and jumped into a freezing cold river in front of his entire Brentford squad on the way to an FA Cup tie at Southampton. Whether this played a part in The Bees grabbing a shock 2-2 draw against the then Premier League side, only they know.
The former West Ham hardman has had a colourful managerial career so far. Successful spells at Barnet, Brentford and MK Dons were marred by a four-game spell in charge of Championship side Leicester City in 2007 which ended after a falling out with chairman Milan Mandaric. A year in the managerial wilderness followed before the opportunity of managing his father’s former club Cheltenham Town came up midway through last season. The Robins were already struggling in League One and due to financial difficulties Allen’s hands were tied when it came to transfer dealings. Town were subsequently relegated to League Two.
However, this summer 'Mad Dog' was given a chance to wheel and deal in the transfer market and the early signs are that his hard work has paid off. After three games, Cheltenham are unbeaten in the league and on Tuesday night they grabbed a 1-0 away win at Rochdale.
In contrast, their opponents on Saturday, Bradford City, have had a disastrous start to the season. The Bantams have yet to even score a goal in their four league and cup games. Their season began with a 5-0 thrashing at Notts County and on Tuesday night they suffered a 2-0 home defeat to Lincoln City.
Strange things can happen in football, but all the signs point to a home victory for Cheltenham Town whom I think are a good price considering the circumstances at 11/10.
Cheeky Punt (20/08/09)
FRANK LAMPARD (Chelsea) @ 9/4 (Paddy Power) to score in 90 mins against Fulham
During the past month there has been a host of season review programmes on Sky and ESPN. I’ve watched quite a few of them and the one thing that stood out for me was certain players consistently scoring against the same clubs year in year out. One such example was Alan Shearer and Leeds United. Over a ten year period he scored a whopping 22 goals against Leeds alone!
Emmanuel Adebayor is another one. Ahead of last weekend’s fixtures I knew he had a great scoring record against Blackburn but I didn’t want to back him as it was his debut for Man City and with all the new signings there was no guarantee that he would start. Anyway, he did score and I won’t be making that mistake again – which brings me along nicely to Frank Lampard!
Lampard is one of the greatest goal-scoring midfielders there is and has consistently racked up 15-20 goals for the last six seasons. On Tuesday night he got off the mark for the season scoring a penalty in his club Chelsea’s 3-1 victory at Sunderland. This weekend ‘The Blues’ travel to their west London neighbours Fulham, whom Lampard has an amazing scoring record against.
In his last nine games against 'The Cottagers', he’s scored eight goals. It gets better – Lampard has scored four goals in his last two visits to Craven Cottage (two in each game). Fulham are usually very good defensively, but Chelsea seem to have the ’Indian sign’ over them. They’ve scored at least two goals on five out of their last six visits to the Cottage.
Whilst I do fancy Fulham to get something from this game, I also believe Chelsea will score at least one goal and with Lampard taking Chelsea’s penalties (he hasn’t missed one in three years) and a lot of their free-kicks I think he is a great bet to get on the scoresheet. Lampard is 13/2 to be the first goal scorer, but I’m going for him to score at any time during 90 minutes at 9/4.
Slow Burner (20/08/09)
MANCHESTER CITY @ 9/1 (Boylesports & Paddy Power) to win the Carling Cup
Next week sees the Carling Cup get into full swing with the entry of most Premier League teams at the second round stage (beginning Monday night). Nearly all top-flight sides now field reserve teams in this competition. Even teams such as Bolton and Wigan who realistically will never win the league, choose to field weakened teams as they see survival much more important than a possible trip to Wembley. It’s for this reason that I cannot see beyond ‘The Big Four’ (Man United, Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal) and teams like Everton, Spurs, Man City and Aston Villa winning the Carling Cup this season.
The first teams I am ruling out of this equation are Everton and Aston Villa. Both teams have very strong first elevens, but there is no strength in depth. They are both playing in the Europa League therefore the Carling Cup will surely be a stretch too far and I expect both to go out in the early rounds.
Arsenal have some fantastic youngsters and Arsene Wenger has fielded a team with an average age of approximately 23 in the Carling Cup for a number of seasons now. Yet they’ve never won the trophy in 13 years under Wenger and although they should have a good run (possibly to the semi-finals) I think they’ll struggle if they come up against one of the big teams.
The domestic cup competitions have always been low on Rafa Benitez’s list of priorities. His Liverpool side have suffered cup exits to the likes of Barnsley and Burnley in recent seasons. In fact, they’ve gone out of the FA Cup in the early rounds for the past three seasons and have exited the Carling Cup over the same period as soon as they’ve played any of the top half Premier League teams. Benitez’s attitude to the Carling Cup was evident last season when he started with only one first team regular, Fernando Torres, in their 4-2 defeat to Spurs.
The Carling Cup has been shared between Chelsea and Man United for the last five years (with the exception of Spurs winning it in 2008) and I expect them to be serious contenders. However, in my opinion the Carling Cup will be won by either Man City or Spurs. Both clubs have very strong squads and with no European football this season for either side this cup will be a priority.
It’s tough to choose between City and Spurs but I’m going to look at their possible front lines for the Carling Cup. Judging by the first few games of this season it looks like Jermaine Defoe and Robbie Keane will be the first choice strike partnership for Spurs . However, Harry Redknapp has Peter Crouch and Roman Pavlyuchenko on the bench and will need to keep them happy, so I can see them being used a lot in the Carling Cup.
Man City on the other hand, have started the season with a front three of Robinho, Emmanuel Adebayor and Craig Bellamy. They also have Roque Santa Cruz and Carlos Tevez in reserve so for the Carling Cup I can see a frontline of Tevez, Santa Cruz and Bellamy. In my opinion, this will be a stronger frontline than that of Spurs. Mark Hughes will also be under a lot of pressure to deliver success early this season and whilst I don't see them finishing in the top four in the league, I am going for Man City to win the Carling Cup at 9/1.
Next week sees the Carling Cup get into full swing with the entry of most Premier League teams at the second round stage (beginning Monday night). Nearly all top-flight sides now field reserve teams in this competition. Even teams such as Bolton and Wigan who realistically will never win the league, choose to field weakened teams as they see survival much more important than a possible trip to Wembley. It’s for this reason that I cannot see beyond ‘The Big Four’ (Man United, Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal) and teams like Everton, Spurs, Man City and Aston Villa winning the Carling Cup this season.
The first teams I am ruling out of this equation are Everton and Aston Villa. Both teams have very strong first elevens, but there is no strength in depth. They are both playing in the Europa League therefore the Carling Cup will surely be a stretch too far and I expect both to go out in the early rounds.
Arsenal have some fantastic youngsters and Arsene Wenger has fielded a team with an average age of approximately 23 in the Carling Cup for a number of seasons now. Yet they’ve never won the trophy in 13 years under Wenger and although they should have a good run (possibly to the semi-finals) I think they’ll struggle if they come up against one of the big teams.
The domestic cup competitions have always been low on Rafa Benitez’s list of priorities. His Liverpool side have suffered cup exits to the likes of Barnsley and Burnley in recent seasons. In fact, they’ve gone out of the FA Cup in the early rounds for the past three seasons and have exited the Carling Cup over the same period as soon as they’ve played any of the top half Premier League teams. Benitez’s attitude to the Carling Cup was evident last season when he started with only one first team regular, Fernando Torres, in their 4-2 defeat to Spurs.
The Carling Cup has been shared between Chelsea and Man United for the last five years (with the exception of Spurs winning it in 2008) and I expect them to be serious contenders. However, in my opinion the Carling Cup will be won by either Man City or Spurs. Both clubs have very strong squads and with no European football this season for either side this cup will be a priority.
It’s tough to choose between City and Spurs but I’m going to look at their possible front lines for the Carling Cup. Judging by the first few games of this season it looks like Jermaine Defoe and Robbie Keane will be the first choice strike partnership for Spurs . However, Harry Redknapp has Peter Crouch and Roman Pavlyuchenko on the bench and will need to keep them happy, so I can see them being used a lot in the Carling Cup.
Man City on the other hand, have started the season with a front three of Robinho, Emmanuel Adebayor and Craig Bellamy. They also have Roque Santa Cruz and Carlos Tevez in reserve so for the Carling Cup I can see a frontline of Tevez, Santa Cruz and Bellamy. In my opinion, this will be a stronger frontline than that of Spurs. Mark Hughes will also be under a lot of pressure to deliver success early this season and whilst I don't see them finishing in the top four in the league, I am going for Man City to win the Carling Cup at 9/1.
Monday, August 17, 2009
WEEK ONE REVIEW – OFF TO A FLYER!
Well, the first week couldn’t have gone much better. In the ‘Double Your Money Banker’ (DYMB) Notts County (evens) thrashed Macclesfield 4-0 away. The ‘Cheeky Punt’ also came off as Coventry City won 2-0 away to Barnsley (the fourth season running the Sky Blues have won at Oakwell). Coventry were 2/1 when the market opened, but had gone out to 5/2 with most bookies by Saturday.
It was a tough decision selecting two away teams. Although I was very confident of a Notts County victory, I was more nervous about Coventry. They have a great record at Barnsley, but the first weeks of a new season can be VERY unpredictable.
A few people have asked if I’ve set any goals/targets for my predictions. I haven’t set any specific targets yet, but I do have an idea of what I want to achieve. My primary concern will be the DYMB bet – this will be my bread and butter as a tipster. Bearing in mind that these bets will be at odds of at least Evens, I’ll be looking to get a win rate of something like 2 in 3. The ‘Cheeky Punt’ bet is unlikely to be as successful as the DYMB bet as the odds will be longer (generally ranging from 2/1 to 5/1) and there will be more risk involved. However, I think a success rate of 1 in 3 (or slightly better) will be profitable. The ‘Slow Burner’ bets will mostly be season-long and I’ll be reviewing these later in the year.
So the first week is over and it’s one out of one for both the weekend bets. Although it was great to make a good start, even if I’d lost, it’s making a profit over the course of a season that counts. I won’t be getting too carried away as there WILL be variance – who’d have predicted Aston Villa’s home defeat to Wigan or Hull City coming within minutes of taking a coupon-busting point away to Chelsea?
I’d like to thank all the well wishers from various sporting and betting forums, particularly the members of the Gambling forum on boards.ie. I’ll be back on Thursday with more tips for the coming weekend!
It was a tough decision selecting two away teams. Although I was very confident of a Notts County victory, I was more nervous about Coventry. They have a great record at Barnsley, but the first weeks of a new season can be VERY unpredictable.
A few people have asked if I’ve set any goals/targets for my predictions. I haven’t set any specific targets yet, but I do have an idea of what I want to achieve. My primary concern will be the DYMB bet – this will be my bread and butter as a tipster. Bearing in mind that these bets will be at odds of at least Evens, I’ll be looking to get a win rate of something like 2 in 3. The ‘Cheeky Punt’ bet is unlikely to be as successful as the DYMB bet as the odds will be longer (generally ranging from 2/1 to 5/1) and there will be more risk involved. However, I think a success rate of 1 in 3 (or slightly better) will be profitable. The ‘Slow Burner’ bets will mostly be season-long and I’ll be reviewing these later in the year.
So the first week is over and it’s one out of one for both the weekend bets. Although it was great to make a good start, even if I’d lost, it’s making a profit over the course of a season that counts. I won’t be getting too carried away as there WILL be variance – who’d have predicted Aston Villa’s home defeat to Wigan or Hull City coming within minutes of taking a coupon-busting point away to Chelsea?
I’d like to thank all the well wishers from various sporting and betting forums, particularly the members of the Gambling forum on boards.ie. I’ll be back on Thursday with more tips for the coming weekend!
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Double Your Money Banker! (13/08/09)
NOTTS COUNTY (away) @ Evens (Boylesports & Paddy Power) to beat Macclesfield
Every season there seems to be one team somewhere that absolutely tears up the division they're in. Judging by last Saturday's 5-0 demolition of Bradford City, this year that team is Notts County and that division happens to be Coca-Cola League Two.
Of course, unless you've had your head in the sand for the past few weeks you'll know that this is no coincidence. County have been taken over by a Middle-Eastern consortium who's goal is to make them a Premier League club. Their first statement of intent was the jaw-dropping appointment of Sven-Goran Eriksson as Director of Football. Players such as Sol Campbell and Dietmar Hamman have this week been linked to The Magpies. Whilst these players may no longer be up to Premier League standard, they would be fine acquisitions for any Championship side...let alone a League Two team!!
However, it's the less glamorous signing of Lee Hughes that has already started to pay dividends. The controversial striker bagged a hat-trick on his league debut last Saturday. The bald-headed hitman clearly belongs at a higher level and probably would be if it hadn't been for his involvement in a hit-and-run which left a man dead in 2004. Hughes served half of a six-year prison sentence for his crime and is now trying to get his career back on track. If he sticks with Notts County, they may rise the divisions together.
Teams like this don't stay at decent odds for long. Sooner rather than later, you'll see Notts County at similar odds to that of Man United to beat the likes of Stoke and Wolves, i.e. no value. But for now, Notts County are evens to beat Macclesfield...and I highly suggest you get on it!
Every season there seems to be one team somewhere that absolutely tears up the division they're in. Judging by last Saturday's 5-0 demolition of Bradford City, this year that team is Notts County and that division happens to be Coca-Cola League Two.
Of course, unless you've had your head in the sand for the past few weeks you'll know that this is no coincidence. County have been taken over by a Middle-Eastern consortium who's goal is to make them a Premier League club. Their first statement of intent was the jaw-dropping appointment of Sven-Goran Eriksson as Director of Football. Players such as Sol Campbell and Dietmar Hamman have this week been linked to The Magpies. Whilst these players may no longer be up to Premier League standard, they would be fine acquisitions for any Championship side...let alone a League Two team!!
However, it's the less glamorous signing of Lee Hughes that has already started to pay dividends. The controversial striker bagged a hat-trick on his league debut last Saturday. The bald-headed hitman clearly belongs at a higher level and probably would be if it hadn't been for his involvement in a hit-and-run which left a man dead in 2004. Hughes served half of a six-year prison sentence for his crime and is now trying to get his career back on track. If he sticks with Notts County, they may rise the divisions together.
Teams like this don't stay at decent odds for long. Sooner rather than later, you'll see Notts County at similar odds to that of Man United to beat the likes of Stoke and Wolves, i.e. no value. But for now, Notts County are evens to beat Macclesfield...and I highly suggest you get on it!
Cheeky Punt (13/08/09)
COVENTRY (away) @ 5/2 (Boylesports & Paddy Power) to beat Barnsley
Chris Coleman endured a tough summer as Coventry City manager, having to sell two of his best players in Danny Fox and Scott Dann (to Celtic and Birmingham respectively). But Cookie proved at Fulham that he can work well with limited resources. Despite Al Fayed's Harrods millions, the Welshman had peanuts to work with in the transfer market when compared with the vast sums given to predecesser Jean Tigana (notably the £11.5 million spent on French flop Steve Marlet) and his successor Lawrie Sanchez (who brought in FIFTEEN players in the summer of 2007).
Coventry began the season in superb fashion last Sunday with a 2-1 home victory over Roy Keane's highly fancied Ipswich side, one-time Republic of Ireland striker Clinton Morrison grabbing a brace.
This Saturday, Coventry travel to Yorkshire to take on last year's relegation strugglers Barnsley. The Sky Blues have a superb record at Oakwell in recent seasons. In fact, they've won this fixture the past three seasons in a row, (2008/09 2-1, 2007/08 4-1, 2006/07 1-0).
Away wins are always tough to call, but I'm going for a Coventry victory at 5/2!
Chris Coleman endured a tough summer as Coventry City manager, having to sell two of his best players in Danny Fox and Scott Dann (to Celtic and Birmingham respectively). But Cookie proved at Fulham that he can work well with limited resources. Despite Al Fayed's Harrods millions, the Welshman had peanuts to work with in the transfer market when compared with the vast sums given to predecesser Jean Tigana (notably the £11.5 million spent on French flop Steve Marlet) and his successor Lawrie Sanchez (who brought in FIFTEEN players in the summer of 2007).
Coventry began the season in superb fashion last Sunday with a 2-1 home victory over Roy Keane's highly fancied Ipswich side, one-time Republic of Ireland striker Clinton Morrison grabbing a brace.
This Saturday, Coventry travel to Yorkshire to take on last year's relegation strugglers Barnsley. The Sky Blues have a superb record at Oakwell in recent seasons. In fact, they've won this fixture the past three seasons in a row, (2008/09 2-1, 2007/08 4-1, 2006/07 1-0).
Away wins are always tough to call, but I'm going for a Coventry victory at 5/2!
Slow Burner (13/08/09)
ALEC McLEISH @ 11/2 (Paddy Power) to win the 'Premier League Sack Race'
To say that Alec McLeish's relationship with the Birmingham City board is a little turbulent would be an understatement (in fact the words 'Israel' and 'Palestine' come to mind!) Despite the midlands club's relatively successful year in the Championship last season, there have long been whispers of friction between the ginger Scot and his superiors (messers Brady, Gold and Sullivan).
This summer the row spilled over into the public domain, when it emerged that the board had gone over McLeish's head in the signing of Ecudorian international Giovanny Espinoza. The Blues boss was offered the defender by an agent, but wasn't willing to commit having only seen videos of the player. Espinoza's agent then went to the Brum board who sanctioned the transfer without consulting McLeish. When the ex-Ranger's boss questioned the move he was reassured that extra transfer funds would be made available to him. Even still, you couldn't imagine it happening to Fergie or Wenger!
Birmingham's pre-season results are also raising alarms. They've lost four out of their six warm-up games (including defeats to Tamworth and Burton Albion!).
The Blues kick-off with a daunting opening day visit to the champions Manchester United and also have to go to Harry Redknapp's resurgent Spurs side in their first four games. But, I believe things will come to a head when McLeish's men take on local rivals Aston Villa on September 13th (unlucky for some!) live on Sky. A poor start to the season, coupled with a derby defeat, may be just the excuse the Birmingham board need to wield the axe and make McLeish the first Premier League managerial casualty of the season.
A quick word on the other leading contenders with the bookies:
Paul Hart (7/2): the fact that he's just been given the Portsmouth job on a permanent basis will surely give him some time to stamp his mark on the team. Tony Adams was given nearly four months by the Pompey hierarchy during a disastarous spell last season and I don't see Hart doing any worse. The Portsmouth board know that Hart is working under difficult circumstances and will surely give him until Christmas (at least) having saved the club last season.
Mark Hughes (9/2): it seems to have gone under the radar that depsite all their spending on the likes of Robinho, Shay Given and Craig Bellamy, Man City actually finished lower last season (10th) under Hughes than they did the previous season under Sven-Goran Eriksson (9th). The fact that City's billionaire owners have given the Welshman another transfer window of spending (signing Tevez, Adebayor, Barry to name just a few) leads me to believe that they think Sparky is the man for the job and he will be given time (unless things go completely wrong).
Phil Brown (15/2): judging by his karaoke performance on the final day of last season, nobody likes the sound of their own voice more than Phil Brown. However, based on the lack of 'transfers in' this summer, it appears nobody else does! Deals for Frazier Campbell, Daryl Murphy, Habib Beye, Bobby Zamora..... (I could go on all night!) have fallen through after the clubs had agreed terms and one can only assume that the tangerine-esque Geordie must be to blame. Hull City started last season like a rabbit out of the traps and a similar start will see Brown's job safe. However, should they repeat their form from the second half of last season, he'll be in trouble. His one saving grace is that Tigers' chairman Paul Duffen is a very patient man and a member of the Phil Brown fan club (population: one!).
To say that Alec McLeish's relationship with the Birmingham City board is a little turbulent would be an understatement (in fact the words 'Israel' and 'Palestine' come to mind!) Despite the midlands club's relatively successful year in the Championship last season, there have long been whispers of friction between the ginger Scot and his superiors (messers Brady, Gold and Sullivan).
This summer the row spilled over into the public domain, when it emerged that the board had gone over McLeish's head in the signing of Ecudorian international Giovanny Espinoza. The Blues boss was offered the defender by an agent, but wasn't willing to commit having only seen videos of the player. Espinoza's agent then went to the Brum board who sanctioned the transfer without consulting McLeish. When the ex-Ranger's boss questioned the move he was reassured that extra transfer funds would be made available to him. Even still, you couldn't imagine it happening to Fergie or Wenger!
Birmingham's pre-season results are also raising alarms. They've lost four out of their six warm-up games (including defeats to Tamworth and Burton Albion!).
The Blues kick-off with a daunting opening day visit to the champions Manchester United and also have to go to Harry Redknapp's resurgent Spurs side in their first four games. But, I believe things will come to a head when McLeish's men take on local rivals Aston Villa on September 13th (unlucky for some!) live on Sky. A poor start to the season, coupled with a derby defeat, may be just the excuse the Birmingham board need to wield the axe and make McLeish the first Premier League managerial casualty of the season.
A quick word on the other leading contenders with the bookies:
Paul Hart (7/2): the fact that he's just been given the Portsmouth job on a permanent basis will surely give him some time to stamp his mark on the team. Tony Adams was given nearly four months by the Pompey hierarchy during a disastarous spell last season and I don't see Hart doing any worse. The Portsmouth board know that Hart is working under difficult circumstances and will surely give him until Christmas (at least) having saved the club last season.
Mark Hughes (9/2): it seems to have gone under the radar that depsite all their spending on the likes of Robinho, Shay Given and Craig Bellamy, Man City actually finished lower last season (10th) under Hughes than they did the previous season under Sven-Goran Eriksson (9th). The fact that City's billionaire owners have given the Welshman another transfer window of spending (signing Tevez, Adebayor, Barry to name just a few) leads me to believe that they think Sparky is the man for the job and he will be given time (unless things go completely wrong).
Phil Brown (15/2): judging by his karaoke performance on the final day of last season, nobody likes the sound of their own voice more than Phil Brown. However, based on the lack of 'transfers in' this summer, it appears nobody else does! Deals for Frazier Campbell, Daryl Murphy, Habib Beye, Bobby Zamora..... (I could go on all night!) have fallen through after the clubs had agreed terms and one can only assume that the tangerine-esque Geordie must be to blame. Hull City started last season like a rabbit out of the traps and a similar start will see Brown's job safe. However, should they repeat their form from the second half of last season, he'll be in trouble. His one saving grace is that Tigers' chairman Paul Duffen is a very patient man and a member of the Phil Brown fan club (population: one!).
INTRODUCTION
Hello all and welcome to 'The Silent Assassin's Betting Blog'. My goal over the coming 2009/10 season will be to give weekly betting tips (primarily on soccer to begin with, but we'll branch out over time) that will be divided into three categories:
Double Your Money Banker!: This will be a bet with odds of at least Evens that will aim to double your money (at a minimum).
Cheeky Punt: Here I'll have a tip for you that'll be a bit more risky, but at longer odds and I'd suggest to back with a lower stake than the DYMB. But, definitely worth putting a few quid on!
Slow Burner: A weekly long-term bet (or 'investment') that I believe will eventually pay dividends. Many of these will be season-long bets, but some may be much shorter, e.g. 'Premier League Goal of The Month'.
I'll be updating the blog every Thursday with my tips for the coming weekend and (time allowing) I'll have a 'post-mortem' of the previous weekend's bets early each week.
Double Your Money Banker!: This will be a bet with odds of at least Evens that will aim to double your money (at a minimum).
Cheeky Punt: Here I'll have a tip for you that'll be a bit more risky, but at longer odds and I'd suggest to back with a lower stake than the DYMB. But, definitely worth putting a few quid on!
Slow Burner: A weekly long-term bet (or 'investment') that I believe will eventually pay dividends. Many of these will be season-long bets, but some may be much shorter, e.g. 'Premier League Goal of The Month'.
I'll be updating the blog every Thursday with my tips for the coming weekend and (time allowing) I'll have a 'post-mortem' of the previous weekend's bets early each week.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)